Evolution Properties

With the UK set to part ways with the EU at the end of March, it's going to be an interesting year for any number of sectors, housing included.

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Specialist property investment agency, Surrenden Invest, has fired up the crystal ball and peered into the future to see if the UK housing market is as prepared as it can be to ensure that property investment continues as business as usual.

With the UK set to part ways with the EU at the end of March, it's going to be an interesting year for any number of sectors, housing included.

Jonathan Stephens, MD, Surrenden Invest, says: "Nobody can ever see what the future holds - that's the case regardless of Brexit. As such, looking ahead to likely investment hotspots is a case of examining the underlying market fundamentals. For 2019, that means cities with youthful populations and strong trends for city centre living. The UK's rental sector is still growing, so 2019's hotspots will be those areas in which populations are expanding rapidly, and where employment prospects are sound."

The UK is in the midst of a housing crisis and is falling further and further behind each year in terms of delivering the number of homes that our population needs. The 13,000 new homes mentioned in this week's Budget are a mere drop in the ocean. Combined with the rapid rise in popularity of city centre living, the shortage of housing is creating pockets of extreme demand in some of the UK's regional metropolises. As such, the Surrenden Invest team has done some number crunching (with a little help from data from the Office for National Statistics and Zoopla) to see which hotspots are worth keeping a close eye on over the year ahead.

2019 property investment hotspots

Birmingham

2018 population: 1,147,300
2041 projected population: 1,313,300
Property price growth over past five years: 29.46%
Housing development to watch: Westminster Works

With a 14.5% population increase on the cards between now and 2041, Birmingham tops the list of 2019 hotspots. The city has a young population compared to the country as a whole, with its five university campuses attracting young people with a thirst for knowledge. The city has the sixth highest graduate retention rate of any UK city, and the third largest inflow of graduates with no prior connection to the city.

This 65,000-strong student talent pool provides Birmingham with a vast pipeline of future workers and entrepreneurs. It also means that stylish homes in city centre locations are, and will continue to be, in hot demand.

Manchester

2018 population: 553,500
2041 projected population: 631,500
Property price growth over past five years: 30.60%
Housing development to watch: Ancoats Gardens

Manchester is on track to experience a 14.1% population increase between 2018 and 2041, meaning it will be snapping at Birmingham's heels in terms of growth. The city has already risen up the ranks in recent years, making it onto IBM's list of top ten global destinations for foreign direct investment in 2017 (as part of the Manchester-Liverpool metropolitan region).

Manchester benefits from a steady influx of bright, enthusiastic young people. The city is second only to London in terms of its graduate returners (at 58%), as well as its inflow of graduates with no prior connection to the city. Businesses are doing much to harness this talent; Amazon, for example, chose Manchester as the site of its first Amazon Academy, running a series of programmes and events designed to help hundreds of small, local businesses. Future residential developments in the city centre will need to serve these entrepreneurial young professionals.

London

2018 population: 8,965,600
2041 projected population: 10,346,000
Property price growth over past five years: 32.36%
Housing development to watch: Brook House

London leads the UK in many respects, as a world-renowned centre for finance, business, education, tourism and more. Over the next 25 years or so, its population is projected to increase by 15.4%, driving demand for housing across the capital. From sleek, centrally located apartments to sprawling houses in the suburbs, London offers every kind of property imaginable, providing homes for workers from across the UK and the globe.

More than 300 languages are currently spoken in London's schools, highlighting the diversity of the capital's future workforce. The city attracts some of the best and brightest as a result of its vast range of employment opportunities and is home to a huge rental population. According to PWC, 60% of Londoners will rent their homes by 2025, as the city's young (and not so young) professionals rent in ever greater numbers.

Liverpool

2018 population: 495,300
2041 projected population: 554,500
Property price growth over past five years: 24.67%
Housing development to watch: The Tannery

Liverpool is on track to experience a population increase of 12.0% between now and 2014, as the city continues to attract talented young people as a result of its thriving service sector, healthcare sector and knowledge economy. The city's extensive cultural offering is also a draw, from its plentiful museums and art galleries to its excellent restaurants and lively music scene.

42% of Liverpool's population is below the age of 30, compared with 37% nationally. This youthful population is driving forward Liverpool's reputation as an innovative, entrepreneurial city. It is also one of the main forces behind the extensive regeneration that the city is experiencing, while the growing trend for city centre living is creating new hotspots close to key attractions and amenities.

Newcastle upon Tyne

2018 population: 297,400
2041 projected population: 318,100
Property price growth over past five years: 23.70%
Housing development to watch: Hadrian's Tower

Newcastle's city centre population has grown rapidly since the turn of the century. According to Centre for Cities, Newcastle city centre enjoyed population growth of 112% between 2002 and 2015. The massive jump in demand for city centre living is creating a hotbed of innovation within the housing sector, as developments seek to woo the bright young things who have flocked to the city for work and want prime accommodation in the heart of Newcastle.

With a superb social scene and a thriving urban renaissance well underway, Newcastle's attractions to ambitious young professionals are plenty. It also has a rapidly growing student body as a result of its superb universities. Student numbers at Newcastle University have shot up by over 70% since 2000, while Northumbria University has enjoyed a student body increase in excess of 114% over the same period. With nearly 50,000 students in total, a full sixth of the city's population is engaged in study, creating a uniquely youthful atmosphere as Newcastle grows its own talent for the future.

Jonathan concludes: "Each of these cities has its own distinctive culture, which is drawing in young people who will ultimately contribute to the future success of that city. Those working in the housing sector need to respond accordingly, delivering high quality homes in central areas, in order to meet the demand that these young people are driving."

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Halifax has released its data on the UK housing market for October and revealed that during the three months to October, average house prices across the UK rose by 1.5% on an annual basis.

This is down from 2.5% in September, resulting in the lowest rate since March 2013.

According to Halifax, house prices in the latest quarter were 0.2% higher than in the preceding three months, and rose by 0.7% on a monthly basis following two consecutive monthly falls.

Russell Galley, managing director at Halifax, said: “The annual rate of house price growth has fallen from 2.5% in September to 1.5% in October, which is the lowest rate of annual growth since March 2013. However, this remains within our forecast annual growth range of 0-3% for 2018.

House prices continue to be supported by the fact that the supply of new homes and existing properties available for sale remains low. Further house price support comes from an already high and improving employment rate and historically low mortgage rates which are creating higher rates of relative affordability. We see this continuing to be the case over the coming months and we remain supportive of our 0-3% forecast range.

Mark Readings, Founder and Managing Director of online estate agency, House Network, comments: "These figures are reflecting the lack of new stock coming onto the market, with many existing homeowners remaining cautious and not looking to sell their property until political uncertainty fades and the market stabilises.

The market fundamentals of low-interest rates and strong employment figures will eventually support growth in the market, which is why we remain positive that even coming to the end of the year we will see an uplift in 2019."

Mike Scott, chief property analyst at Yopa, commented: "The Halifax reports the slowest annual rate of house price growth for five years, at 1.5%. This closely matches the figure and trend published last week by the Nationwide. Prices for the three months from August to October were barely up on the preceding three month period at just 0.2%. The monthly figure recorded an increase of 0.7%, but this was a correction following consecutive monthly price falls in August and September.

This slowdown is unlikely to turn into an actual fall in the market in the short term, and the Halifax still expects the outcome for the year as a whole to be an increase of between 0 and 3%. The supply of homes is tight, mortgage interest rates are low, lenders are willing to lend, employment levels are high and average earnings are increasing. It will take a change in at least one of these factors, and probably in several of them, before we see any kind of sustained fall in house prices. However, with demand also weak and the numbers of house sales and mortgage approvals a few percent down on last year, we are equally unlikely to see a return to any kind of a house price boom."

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Overseas property expert Simon Conn has seen an increase in the number of buyers not carrying out proper checks before signing on the dotted line and has put together a list of the 20 top issues to look out for.

With the overseas property market becoming more complicated and competitive, prospective buyers are being urged to undertake thorough research before committing to a sale abroad.

1: Ask questions about where a property has been built: For example, if it has been built on an area that should have been set aside for green belt or agricultural land, then the chances are there is a risk.

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Interesting article that came across my desk the other day that I wanted to share!

Although it may seem somewhat self-explanatory at first glance, behaving in a tenant-like manner could really mean anything and would, therefore, be open to interpretation without solid guidelines behind it. Thankfully, such guidelines exist, and in this post we’ll explore exactly what behaving in a tenant-like manner actually means so you’ll know exactly what your responsibilities are.

What are the origins of the phrase, “tenant-like manner”?

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Halifax has reported that house price growth between July and September was 1.8% higher than in the preceding three months, marking the third consecutive quarterly rise.

Halifax revealed that on a monthly basis, average house prices fell by 1.4% in September, the second consecutive fall for this measure.

Mortgage approvals showed a small rise in August. Bank of England industry-wide figures show that the number of mortgages approved to finance house purchases – a leading indicator of completed house sales rose to 66,440 in August from 65,156 in July. The figure is very close to the 5 year average approval rate of 66,550, but is 2,000 above the monthly average for the previous 12 month period of 64,638.

The number of completed UK home sales remains near the monthly average for the past 12 months. On a monthly basis, sales rose between July and August to 99,120. In the three months to August sales increased by 1.2% from the previous three months. The volume of residential transactions has been broadly flat over the past year and is likely to remain so in the coming months.

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The latest research from Paragon has found that a third of landlords are less likely to buy property if three-year tenancies are made compulsory under new government proposals.

According to the report, 32% say they would be less likely to expand their portfolio further should government press ahead with compulsory or default three-year tenancies.

Paragon surveyed landlords on the issue to gain a deeper understanding of their views following the government’s recent consultation, ‘Overcoming the barriers to longer tenancies in the PRS’.

Asked if the introduction of a compulsory three-year tenancy would make them more or less likely to consider certain tenant types, the highest proportion of landlords said they would be more likely to consider older couples (36%), retired people (29%), families (25%) and older singles (25%).

Interestingly, landlords felt a compulsory three-year agreement could potentially make them less likely to consider mobile and itinerant groups, including students (45%), migrant workers (40%) and young singles (24%).

Working in concert through the then Council of Mortgage Lenders to co-ordinate action across the lender community, significant change was achieved and today many of the biggest lenders in the buy-to-let sector support landlords offering tenancies up to three years in duration.

John Heron, Director of Mortgages at Paragon said: “Landlords are highlighting that the diversity of the tenant population calls for a diversity of tenancy arrangements. While some groups value greater security, many other tenants favour flexibility. Young professionals, for example, value the flexibility that the PRS brings to move to different areas and to different types or property.

In light of these findings, rather than impose longer-term tenancies as the primary or default arrangement in law, it may be preferable to bolster tenants’ rights to choose from a range of different tenancy lengths and boost incentives to landlords to enter long term arrangements where requested.”

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